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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

But the latest field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime strugglers improving in unison. Under an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still