🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."