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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.